TSMC Q3 Earnings Call: AI Demand Still Exceeds Supply Capability

What happened

On October 15, TSMC reported Q3 results and held its earnings call: quarterly revenue of NT$1.494 trillion (about $46.7 billion), up 50.9% year over year; net income of NT$763.06 billion, up 68.7%, which the Associated Press described as a record. On the call, C.C. Wei said demand remains above the company's present supply capability and that TSMC is working to narrow the gap.

The company forecast Q4 revenue of $52.3–54.3 billion, citing continued leading-edge demand and the 2-nanometer ramp. AP also reported TSMC is evaluating expansion beyond Arizona, including Texas, and is open to discussions around Elon Musk's Terafab project; the company said its Texas plans remain under deliberation.

Key facts

1. Q3 results: Revenue of about $46.7 billion, up 50.9% YoY; net income up 68.7% YoY, described by AP as a record.
2. Node mix: 2nm, 3nm, 5nm and 7nm were 8%, 33%, 28% and 10% of wafer revenue respectively; 7nm and below totaled 79%.
3. Q4 guidance: Revenue of $52.3–54.3 billion, supported by leading-edge demand and the 2nm ramp.
4. On supply: C.C. Wei: demand remains above present supply capability; TSMC is working to narrow the gap.
5. Expansion: Evaluating expansion beyond Arizona, including Texas; open to discussions on Musk's Terafab; Texas plans still under deliberation, no new fab announced.

Background

HIMIAO reported TSMC's record Q3 revenue ($46.7B, up 50%) on Oct 9; what the market was waiting for was this Oct 15 call — guidance, the supply-capability message and the 2nm share were the key things to watch.