Anthropic IPO Valuation Talk Falls to $1.1–$1.3 Trillion as Roadshow Nears

What happened

Prospective buyers are discussing a valuation of roughly $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, and in some cases as little as $1.1 trillion, Bloomberg reported on Nov 6, citing people familiar with the deliberations; the Wall Street Journal cited one investor putting the figure closer to $1 trillion. The discussions are still under way and no terms have been fixed; Anthropic declined to comment.

The valuation talk has fallen in three steps within a month: in early October investors floated values as high as $2 trillion; after a company briefing on its financial results later that month, expectations settled around $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion; after the selloff in AI stocks on Nov 5, the discussions dropped further. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Nov 5, almost 12% below its Oct 6 high, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% the same day, erasing about $2.3 trillion of market value in a single session.

On timing: the roadshow is expected to begin the week of Nov 9, with a listing targeted for the week of Nov 16, ahead of Thanksgiving on Nov 26; Reuters reported on Nov 6 that potential investors question whether the roadshow can start on time, and the offering could be delayed if pressure on AI assets persists. The company's amended S-1 from Nov 2 still leaves the price range and share count blank, with the run-rate revenue figure as of Oct 31 left empty; the offering is reported to be as large as $100 billion.

Key facts

1. Reported by: Bloomberg, Nov 6, 2026, citing people familiar with the deliberations; the Wall Street Journal and Reuters followed the same day
2. Latest range: $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, in some cases as low as $1.1 trillion; the Wall Street Journal cited one investor putting it closer to $1 trillion
3. A month ago: values as high as $2 trillion were floated in early October, and about $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion in mid-October
4. Roadshow: expected to begin the week of Nov 9; listing targeted for the week of Nov 16, ahead of Thanksgiving
5. Schedule risk: Reuters reported investors question whether the roadshow can start on time and the offering could be delayed; the company has not announced a change to its timetable
6. Market backdrop: the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% on Nov 5, almost 12% below its Oct 6 high; the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4%, erasing about $2.3 trillion of market value in a single session
7. Financials (amended S-1, Nov 2): third-quarter revenue of $16.96 billion, with growth down to 47% and an operating loss of $567 million; revenue of $33.24 billion for the first nine months
8. Compute commitments: procurement and lease commitments totaled $895.4 billion as of the end of September
9. Listing terms: planned Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT; price range and share count not yet set; the run-rate revenue figure as of Oct 31 left blank
10. Last private valuation: $965 billion after the Series H round in May; the offering is reported to be as large as $100 billion

Latest developments

Prediction markets lost confidence in a November listing: on Polymarket, the chance of an Anthropic IPO in November fell from about 88% on Nov 3 to as low as 51% on Nov 5, while the chance of a January 2027 debut rose from less than 1% to nearly 17%, on about $566,000 of volume, The Block reported on Nov 6; on Kalshi, the chance of a listing before Dec 1 fell from about 88% to 60%, on nearly $4.9 million of volume.

New reporting on Nov 6 pointed to the original schedule holding: the Financial Times said Anthropic still plans to list before Thanksgiving, raising $80 billion to $100 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion, and The Information said the roadshow will go ahead next week. But no price range has been filed: the Nov 2 amended prospectus still leaves the price range and share count blank, and the next key filing is an amendment carrying a price range.

1. Polymarket: November-listing odds fell from about 88% to about 51% (Nov 3 to Nov 5); January 2027 debut odds rose from less than 1% to nearly 17%
2. Kalshi: odds of a listing before Dec 1 fell from about 88% to 60%; before Jan 1, 63%; before Feb 1, 85%
3. Cross-check: ZeroHedge's Nov 6 tracking showed Polymarket odds of a listing by Nov 25 falling from 86% to 54%, and odds of an IPO at any point in 2026 falling from 93% to 73%
4. Financial Times, Nov 6: still plans to list before Thanksgiving, raising $80 billion to $100 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion
5. The Information, Nov 6: the roadshow will go ahead next week, with the listing still targeted for the week of Nov 16
6. Pending filing: no S-1 amendment carrying a price range has been filed; the Nov 2 amendment still leaves the price range and share count blank