Apollo: AI Has Delivered 'Zero Payoff' Outside Tech as S&P 493 Margins and Revenue per Worker Stay Flat

What happened

The note, titled 'No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector,' was covered by TechCrunch on Oct 25 and also reported by Bloomberg and Fortune. Sløk splits the S&P 500 into two groups: the Magnificent Seven — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla — and the remaining 493 companies, comparing them on three measures: revenue per worker, profit margins and productivity.

The numerical contrast is the core of the note: revenue per worker at the Magnificent Seven rose from about $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000 in 2026, while the S&P 493 has sat near $550,000 for seven years; on margins, the Magnificent Seven are near 30%, against about 10% for the S&P 493, roughly where it was in 2019; model-inference spending is also concentrated, with 99.5% coming from the top 10% of spenders. Sløk also cites the San Francisco Federal Reserve's productivity series, saying it shows no sign yet of AI lifting overall productivity growth.

Sløk wrote in the note that despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech; he added that AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment, and AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue growth and profit margins. TechCrunch added in its coverage that recent studies have also found AI has yet to deliver significant productivity gains.

Key facts

1. Note and author: Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk's note, published Oct 24 and titled 'No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector'; TechCrunch covered it Oct 25, with Bloomberg and Fortune also reporting it.
2. Method: the S&P 500 is split into the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla) and the remaining 493 companies, compared on revenue per worker, margins and productivity.
3. Revenue per worker: the Magnificent Seven rose from about $550,000 in 2022 to nearly $800,000 in 2026; the S&P 493 has sat near $550,000 for seven years.
4. Margins: the Magnificent Seven are near 30%, up from about 11% ten years ago; the S&P 493 are about 10%, roughly where they were in 2019.
5. Spending concentration: 99.5% of model-inference spending comes from the top 10% of spenders; Sløk wrote that the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7.
6. Productivity: the San Francisco Fed's productivity series shows no sign of AI lifting overall productivity growth; Sløk was skeptical that corporate America can turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins.